PEG

A NEW DISTRIBUTION.

Of the hundreds of statistical distribution here is one more.

This distribution answers the question ;

If I waited t0 for something to happen how long must I wait to be p% sure that I will see it again.

The simple formula is ;

         t1=t0*p/(1-p)

thus for p=90% t1=9*t0 and for p=99% t1=99.

This can be used in all types of interesting cases.

On a certain starry night I had to wait 10m before seeing a falling star. How long will I have to wait until I can be 90% sure that I will see another. t1=9*10m=90m. This means that I can be 90% sure that I will not have to wait more than 1.5 hours before seeing the next falling star.

I had to open four breakfast porridge box's before getting a special gift. How many box's will I have to open to be 90% sure of getting another.

   t1=4*9=36.

This distribution is extremely easy to use and is based on the poisson-exponential-geometric type distributions.It assumes that the chance of the event occurring is always the same.

We could also go a bit further and include the cases of predicting the next value after 2,3 or more events.After about 10 samples it loses its interest as it becomes the exponential distribution.