2004 Canadian election

A Canadian parliamentary election will most likely be held at some point in early 2004. Most pundits are predicting that Prime Minister-in-waiting Paul Martin will lead the Liberal Party of Canada to an almost certain fourth majority government, possibly setting a new seat record in the process.

Opposition parties

In recent months the New Democratic Party of Canada, Progressive Conservative Party of Canada, and Canadian Alliance party have been running a distant first, second, and third in the polls. Many pundits have been predicting that the popular and fiscally conservative Martin, combined with continued vote-splitting on the right, could lead to the almost total annihilation of the Conservatives and Canadian Alliance. This fear has prompted those two parties to attempt to form a united Conservative Party of Canada, subject to the approval of their memberships.

Prior to the announcement of the union of the right-of-centre parties, many were predicting a solid NDP official opposition. A new leader, clear left-wing policies, and the possible collapse of the other opposition parties may allow the NDP to make major breakthroughs in all the regions of the country.

While many predicted that the election of the strongly federalist Quebec Liberal Party under Jean Charest in that province would give the Bloc Québécois new purpose and assure it a place in the next parliament, the party continues to sink in the polls. The continued decline in support for sovereignty, an unpopular leader, the massive popularity of Paul Martin, and the renewed presence of the NDP and possibly a united conservative/decentralist party in the province, threatens the official status of the BQ.